Simple Python code to compare long-term average damage from Mana Crypt and Mana Vault
Well, what can I say, I like EDH. It’s time to nerd out.
And even though Hasbro stocks are going through a rough time as apparently the company realized that Magic: The Gathering is kind of a “money printing” deal on the short term, that’s not really changing the core of what the game is to us, as a playerbase. Yes, thinking about Wizards of the Coast leaves a bittersweet taste in my mouth as I remember most of this year’s collections. Apart from awesome new full art basic lands, latest collections felt forgetable. I guess that I managed to get a new card for a deck I own here and there (like Llanowar Loamspeaker, a new 2 CMC mana dork that goes well with the other green elfs I own, or Illicit Shipment, a new tutor in black that goes really well with my Tribal Rats deck), but no big deal.
But yeah, somethings never change. As some players (specially in the US) were spending money on sealed bundle boxes for the new collections, I was buying myself singles (also due to budget restrictions). Mostly shocklands and stuff that goes well with almost every deck I own like Cyclonic Rift and Demonic Tutor, but I never managed to get the expensive stuff. I mean, the really expensive stuff that defines EDH, and specially cEDH: The mighty Mana Crypt.
I really have no problem with paying with life in order to ramp, as a player starts with 40 life points in total. You can quickly realize that the tradeoff is mostly valid, If you are trying to end a game as fast as possible. Not saying that Mana Crypt is only good for competitive fast EDH matches, but It feels right on more focused decks overall. Problem is, the price. Never managed to get my hands on a Mana Crypt. I currently live in Brazil, and a new Slightly Played Mana Crypt goes for 600 BRL right now (112 USD). But a Heavily Played Mana Vault is 200 BRL (37,39 USD). Both prices are kind of insane If you think about It, but I am no one to question basic supply and demand. Not only this cards are good in a deck for basic ramp, but It is more or less “predictable” that they will retain their value over time.
I mean, these cards should retain value If Hasbro don’t go bankrupt and every MTG player decides to start playing something else. Currently, the bankrupt part might as well be true for the most pessimistic players, but I feel like the community is too big at this point. Single cards as investments are a difficult topic, but Magic’s longevity is at least debatable.
As I was told when learning about stocks: “What has held value for the longest time is more likely to hold value in the future”.
So, time for Monte Carlo simulations. This one was easy.
The thing I wanted to analyse is how the damage part of Mana Crypt and Mana Vault behave on the long term. Basically, over a million turns, Mana Crypt resulted in more or less 50% more damage to a player’s life total than Mana Vault. I may take these averages and adapt them to fewer turns, since no commander game has 1 million turns. The variance will be greater with a space of fewer samples (meaning less turns), but the averages are there to tell us something.
I mean, these results should not be a huge surprise. Mana Crypt gives 3 damage per turn, 50% of the time. That’s 1.5 damage in average in theory, just like the simulations show us.
If you tap Mana Vault when It is cast, over a million turns, It will do less damage to a player than a Mana Crypt. The downside is, Mana Crypt will generate 3 mana each turn, as Mana Vault does not untap If a player does not pay 4 generic mana.
Also, the thing about Mana Vault is the potential of untapping to generate even more mana, and even avoid damage at upkeep. Just using cards like Voltaic Key is enough for this effect.
So, both cards have strong things going for them: Mana Vault is quick generic mana that should take more time to affect you, but Mana Crypt is a consistent generic mana source over a match, that should affect you faster.
It’s hard to tell If Mana Vault is 66,6% worse than Mana Crypt as the prices may indicate. Maybe the winner here is Sol Ring, as it costs a couple of dollars. At the end of the day, the fact that there are no Sol Ring-like cards with a good amount of supply on the market is what creates demand for cards like Mana Crypt and Mana Vault 🤷♂️.
